澳洲政府预期本年度将出现15年来首见的预算盈余,主要受惠于大宗商品价格高涨。当局并在年度预算中调高对大宗商品长期价格的假设,并预估国库可因此多出数10亿美元的额外收入。
根据澳洲政府周二公布的文件,截至2023年6月底的1年期间,将出现42亿澳币(126亿5507万400令吉)预算盈余,远优于去年10月预估的369亿澳币(1111亿8383万2800令吉)赤字,因就业增长强劲,矿业利润丰厚,带动税收大增,使得国库充盈。
英媒报导,预算文件也显示,鉴于采矿业的通膨和俄乌战争导致供应中断,澳洲当局“温和上修”4种关键大宗商品价格假设,预估铁矿砂现货长期价格为每吨60美元(267.35令吉);对动力煤的现货价格预估从每吨60美元提高到70美元(311.90令吉)。对炼焦煤和液化天然气价格预测也上升。
根据财政部分析,铁矿砂价格每吨涨10美元(44.55令吉),将助2023-24财政年度的名义国内生产总值(GDP)增加52亿澳币(156亿6818万2400令吉),税收增加5亿澳币(15亿655万6000令吉)。
但医疗、能源和国防等各项庞大支出,可能让预算盈余只是昙花一现。
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