双线资本(DoubleLine Capital)首席执行员、有“新债王”之称的杰弗里冈拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)周四表示,预计明年美国总统大选前,美国经济衰退的几率为75%,高过6月时估计的65%。
他指出,收益率曲线出现40基点的倒挂,其后通常会出现问题,收益率曲线会开始再度陡斜。美联储将要降息,但衰退命运已接近被确定。
他对股市看法较淡,继续唱好黄金,直言进入负利率的债券数量持续增加,投资者都希望转持有较债券回报理想的资产,金价可持续上扬。
冈拉克在6月份时曾表示,美国经济未来6个月内陷入衰退的可能性已升至40-45%,未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性高达65%。
冈拉克彼时表示,收益率曲线和纽约联储衰退概率模型都显示衰退的可能性在上升。
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